what are csgo case odds

What are CS:GO Case Odds – Wear | Grade Odds

CS:GO’s skin market is easy to get into but tough to master. All you have to do is pick up a couple of skins, and you can start trading. You might even be able to start making some money. However, the big money is in the rare skins. The ones that you can’t get from just anywhere. We’re talking about case skins and the rarest case skins at that. But what are the odds of getting them, and how do they affect your strategy for earning more money? In this guide, we’ll explain everything there is to know about CS:GO case odds. We’ll also throw in some additional information about cases so that you can go into the game with open eyes and armed with all the knowledge necessary.

CS:GO Case Odds

CS-GO Case Odds

CS:GO case odds are the odds of you picking up a rare skin from a given case. It’s the same as the odds for anything. The higher the CS2 odds are, the better your chances of getting a skin, and the lower they are, the worse your chances are. Most players refer to case odds as drop rates. The best CS:GO case odds in the game at the time of writing are Mil-Spec (Blue) – 79,92327%. That might be a bit confusing, so let’s dive into exactly what it means.

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CS:GO Case Drop Rates

For a good long while, case odds were a complete mystery. Over the years, though, players have gotten smarter and more proficient at uncovering the odds connected with cases. They’ve also worked out your chances of getting certain skins and even the quality of those skins.

The latest exact for skins dropping at certain qualities are as follows. We’re organized it by quality first, Mil-Spec (Blue) for example, and the odds, the number, second.

  • Mil-Spec (Blue) – 79,92327%
  • Restricted (Purple) – 15,98465%
  • Classified (Pink) – 3,19693%
  • Covert (Red) – 0,63939%
  • Special Items/Knives (Gold) – 0,25575%

In the numbers above, you can see that there’s a better chance of you picking up a Mil-Spec (Blue) skin than anything else. The rarest items are the Special Items/Knives. As a result, knives are generally the rarest items in CS:GO, especially when they have a desirable pattern attached to them.

There’s more to it than just this, though. Every item in the categories above has a ten percent chance to become a StatTrack item. These are much rarer and more valuable skins than others. The chances of these StatTrack items dropping are as follows.

  • Mil-Spec (Blue) – 7,99233%
  • Restricted (Purple) – 1,59847%
  • Classified (Pink) – 0,31969%
  • Covert (Red) – 0,06394%
  • Special Items/Knives (Gold) – 0,02558%

All cases in CS:GO have universal drop rates. This means that no case has better odds of awarding you with a ridiculously valuable skin. The chances are the same across the board. Even if you buy a more expensive case, the odds for each item remain the same. This ensures that no one can play the system and generate more money than they put into the game or gain an unfair number of rare skins. It’s a well-balanced system, and some players hate it.

The Worst CS:GO Case Odds are Actually the Best

The Worst CS-GO Case Odds are Actually the Best

If you’re looking at the case odds above and don’t understand what type of skin will be worth the most money, don’t worry. In this section, we will outline exactly what makes a skin valuable and what the case odds for it are.

The quality of a skin is a big part of what makes it valuable. If it’s in Factory New condition, then it’s the best it possibly can be. This means that the skin has no blemishes. Therefore, it’s entirely intact, so players can see all of it. Skins don’t earn you a lot of cash unless they are in Factory New condition. The only exception is if a skin is in a lower condition, but you can’t get it in the game anymore. There are so few examples of this type of skin that it’s not worth exploring here.

When it comes to the drop rates listed above, the lower section is the one you should be concerned with. StatTrack skins earn the most money when sold. Therefore, your odds are already pretty low for grabbing one. The odds get even worse as you go down the list. Ultimately, a special item or knife skin at Factory New Quality and as a StatTrack variant will be the most valuable skin you ever earn. The odds of picking one of these up are almost nothing, though. Rounded up, the odds are 0.025%.

This is why the worst case odds in the game are actually the best. These are the odds you’re chasing, and they’re the odds that will net you a skin that’s worth thousands of dollars.

Quantity Over Quality

battle scarred vs factory new

Never underestimate the power of numbers. Above, we’ve outlined how it’s nearly impossible for a player to pick up a genuinely expensive CS:GO skin. That doesn’t mean that you can’t use these odds to your advantage, though. The skins you’re more likely to pick up can still earn money. You just need to play your cards right.

Having multiples of a single skin can be extremely advantageous. If you sell one, you can hold onto another to see how it grows in value. You can also track the sale of your other skin to see what can be done to improve the price. Selling it on the right day can help, for example, but there are other things you can do as well.

Players can attach stickers to a skin. It’s part of making your skin more unique than anyone else’s. The thing is, there are sets of stickers in CS:GO. If you collect a set and stick them all to a skin, then you’ve instantly upgraded the skin’s value. If each of those stickers is also high in quality, then together, the skin and sticker collection can be worth more than any single skin will ever be alone.

Keep acquiring skins and cases. Monitor what skins sell well, and try to get as many of them as you can for as little money as possible. The more you spend, the lower your profits.

Buying Cases or Buying Skins?

Buying Cases or Buying Skins

Buying cases is easy, but you’re never guaranteed to earn a good skin from them. You can just buy a rare skin, but then you’re paying much more than you would for a case. It’s a situation in which there’s no winner. However, you can be sensible about it. Let’s weigh up these options so that you have all the facts.

Buying skins is easy for anyone to do. You can look on any website, such as Lootbear, and find some amazing skins at both affordable and unaffordable prices. It’s down to you if you want to buy them. If you do, you can use them in the game. Their quality won’t reduce, so you could easily sell them later. This is a sort of investment, but you’re never guaranteed to earn your money back. Skins are like shares on the stock market. Different ones become more desirable at various points throughout the year. It might be something as arbitrary as a Spider-Man movie releasing. You could buy an expensive skin and then sell it for pennies when you’re done with it. It’s not always a good investment.

Buying cases, on the other hand, is more of a game of chance. You have the odds in this article to consider. Each time you buy a case, you could open it to find that it has the most expensive skin ever found within. However, the skin could also be useless and worthless. As with buying a skin, it’s a bit of a gamble. With cases, though, there is an alternative that some players use to their advantage. You can buy a case and hold onto it. Then, sell it at a later date without ever opening it.

Selling CS:GO Cases

selling csgo cases

Selling cheap skins isn’t worth anyone’s time. It’s just a good way to get rid of the clutter in your inventory. Selling CS:GO cases, though, that can be worth your time. An unopened case is more valuable than a common skin. No one knows what’s inside, so it has the potential to be extremely valuable. Some players will pay through the roof for an unopened case. If you hold onto them for long enough, then you could even sell a bundle to a player who wants to have their own stash of these cases.

Buying CS:GO cases might sometimes seem like a waste of time, but if you never open them, they never decrease in value. Some players won’t be willing to spend much on a case, but others will. If you wait long enough, the right buyer will come along and take you up on whatever offer you have. If that’s five unopened skins, then that could earn you more than a single uncommon skin would if you got it to drop from one of the cases.


CS:GO case odds have to be fair. It’s a part of them being a purchasable item in the game. They’re akin to gambling, though they’re a lot less tricky to get into trouble with. Ultimately, the odds are what we’ve outlined them as in this article. You have to decide for yourself if you want to take the risk and buy one for the possibility of earning a rare skin or not.